Thoughts....

I posted a few aggressive and short term long setups to keep an eye on as well as an alternate scenario to the "Broad Pattern" I posted over the weekend regarding the 60 minute charts. I also posted a scan with a couple of examples I use at Stockcharts.com. I'll provide a link to it from the home page during the week with some different variations to it.

Index Watch for November 25, 2008

New Setups for November 25, 2008

Education - Short Term Long Scan

I use this scan to find short term long trade setups. It works well once the market consolidates for 2 - 4 days after falling sharply over a period of weeks. Although I run it daily, it has historically produced a multiple of candidates only a few times over the course of a year. When I scroll through the charts, I look for stocks where the price action is "stretched" from the 50 Day Moving Average. Also, I want the 8 Day Moving Average to be "curling up" and under the closing price. The scan with examples:

Scan #1
[type = stock] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 100000] and [daily sma(60,daily close) > 1] and [daily close >= yesterday's daily close] and [daily close >= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.75] and [daily close <= daily sma(20,daily close)] and [2 days ago daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= 80] and [daily low <= daily sma(8,daily close)]

Example #1

Example #2

Scan #2
[type = stock] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 75000] and [daily sma(60,daily close) > 1] and [daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.50] and [daily close <= daily sma(20,daily close)] and [daily close <= 20] and [daily low <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily high >= daily sma(8,daily close)]

Scan #3
[type = stock] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 100000] and [daily sma(60,daily close) > 1] and [daily close >= yesterday's daily close] and [daily high >= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.75] and [daily close <= daily sma(20,daily close)] and [2 days ago daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= 80] and [daily low <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)]

Thoughts....

The recent action in the market isn't providing me with many new and objective setups to post. When it does, I'll get them up as quick as I can.

With the 2002 lows now being taken out, the next area of significance to keep an eye for the S&P 500 is 650. This is illustrated on the monthly chart in the "Index Watch" by a trendline that extends to 1982. Another chart that interests me in the same section is the monthly chart of the U.S. Dollar. As it approaches the Right Shoulder in the massive Head & Shoulders pattern, it's possible this phase of the greenback rally may be nearing an end, which gives me a little hope for the market.

I'm going to post some of my scans during the week with examples.

Index Watch for November 24, 2008

Review for Week of November 24, 2008

Intraday Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

DUG UltraShort Oil & Gas
SDS UltraShort S&P 500
MVV Ultra MidCap 400
UNG U.S. Natural Gas Fund
DBA PowerShares Agriculture
TWM UltraShort Russell 2000
SMN UltraShort Basic Materials
SRS UltraShort Real Estate
DXD UltraShort Dow 30
SDP UltraShort Utilities
FXY CurrencyShares Japanese Yen
GLD streetTRACKS Gold Trust
EEM iShares Emerging Markets

Short Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

BMS Bemis
CASY Casey's General Stores
PETS PetMed Express
RGLD Royal Gold
SMG Scotts Co
TEVA Teva Pharma
ALGT Allegiant Travel
ICFI ICF International
EPIQ Epiq Systems
HMSY Health Management Systems
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems
SPTN Spartan Stores
SRCL Stericycle
GENZ Genzyme
GILD Gilead Sciences
CHD Church & Dwight
LNT Alliant Energy
ATO Atmos Energy
WEC Wisconsin Energy
XEL Xcel Energy
XOM Exxon Mobil
EW Edwards LifeSciences
AOC Aon Corp
LMNX Luminex
GHDX Genomic Health
LH Laboratory Amer
CLHB Clean Harbors
CMTL Cometech Tele
SJM The J.M. Smucker Co
NAFC Nash Finch
NAT Nordic American Tanker
EZPW EZCORP
D Dominion Resources
MCD McDonalds
IPCC Infinity Property & Casualty
DVA DaVita
BDE Bois d'Arc Energy
HANS Hansen Natural
LNCE Lance
CLX Clorox
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
CERN Cerner

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

BAC Bank of America
VMW VMware
COIN Converted Organics
BRCD Brocade Communications
BRCM Broadcom
SLW Silver Wheaton
MS Morgan Stanley
MTL Mechel Steel
MICC Millicom Cellular
WYNN Wynn Resorts
LM Legg Mason
CVI CVR Energy
CZZ Cosan
CRME Cardiome Pharma
PFBC Preferred Bank
REVU Princeton Review
WTNY Whitney Holding
RMTR Ramtron
DAIO Data I/O
ITP Intertape Polymer

Breakout Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

CGX Consolidated Graphics
VPRT VistaPrint
HL Hecla Mining
DFT DuPont Fabros Tech
LPX Louisiana Pacific
ETM Entercom Communications
DMC Document Security Systems
FRPT Force Protection
AZC Augusta Resource
EMAG Emageon
CHRK Cherokee Intl
DCM NTT DoCoMo
RURL Rural/Metro

Thoughts....

I didn't need to, but I posted a few more aggressive setups that are at or near actionable levels. If discipline is maintained, they all offer minimal risk.

Although it feels like the bottom is going to fall out any moment, I don't have a clue where we're headed over the short term. There's no point in trying to predict the bottom because it's an impossible task. Until things clear up, I'm going to poke along and control my positions by following the rules that help me survive. My trades will continue to be around key and objective S/R levels.

New Setups for November 18, 2008

Thoughts....

If I'm anything, it's flexible. I trade what I see. It took me a long time to realize the market loves a flexible mind. When a flexible mind sees the situation getting complex, it immediately moves to reduce the complexity by reducing or eliminating the noise of the unknown. In other words, trade what you see...not what you think, read, or hear from the talking heads on CNBC.

I've posted a lot of new setups to the watch for the coming week. Along with the regular setups, I've included some short term "Intraday" and "Double Bottom" opportunities that offer favorable risk/reward if we trade them with discipline.

I haven't forgotten about posting some scans / educational content. I just haven't had the time to put anything together yet. I'll have something up during Thanksgiving week.

I'll be around during the week to make a few posts. If you haven't already done so, sign up for the free "Email Service."

Index Watch for November 17, 2008

Review for Week of November 17, 2008

Intraday Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

IWM Russell 2000 iShares
USO United States Oil Fund
QLD Ultra QQQ
SSO Ultra S&P 500
SRS UltraShort Real Estate
IYR Real Estate iShares
MZZ ProShares UltraShort Mid Cap 400
SCC UltraShort Consumer Services
SDP UltraShort Utilities
DXD UltraShort Dow 30
DDM Ultra Dow 30
IAI iShares U.S. Broker Dealers
UYG Ultra Financials
DIG ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas
SKF UltraShort Financials
SMN UltraShort Basic Materials
EEM iShares Emerging Markets
FXY CurrencyShares Japanese Yen
GLD streetTRACKS Gold Trust
DBA PowerShares Agriculture

ETF Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

GSG Commodity iShares
SHY 1-3 Year Treasury Fund
OIL iPath S&P Crude Oil Index
DXO PowerShares Crude Oil Double Long
GLD streetTRACKS Gold Trust

Short Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

AFAM Almost Family
FSYS Fuel Systems
CASY Casey's General Stores
MYGN Myriad Genetics
ESI ITT Educational Services
EPIQ EPIQ Systems
HMSY Health Management Systems
PETS PetMed Express
NAT Nordic American Tanker
ABMD Abiomed
EW Edwards Lifesciences
SMG Scotts Company
KAMN Kaman
BNI Burlington Northern
NSC Norfolk Southern
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems
GILD Gilead Sciences
GTXI GTx
GXDX Genoptix
TECH Techne
UTHR United Therapeutics
BAX Baxter Intl
EOG EOG Resources
SPTN Spartan Stores
XOM Exxon Mobil
NAFC Nash Finch
HEI Heico
CHD Church & Dwight
CLHB Clean Harbors
SRCL Stericycle
LH Laboratory Amer Holding
ALXN Alexion Pharma
GENZ Genzyme General
GHDX Genomic Health
LNT Alliant Energy
DVA DaVita
EZPW EZCORP
AMED Amedisys
BDE Bois d'Arc Energy
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
MCD McDonalds
RAVN Raven Industries
SJM The J.M. Smucker Company
SJT San Juan Basin Royalty Trust
CEPH Cephalon
LFC China Life Insurance
LHCG LHC Group
CFFN Capital Federal Financial
AMGN Amgen
DV Devry
PTV Pactiv
HAE Haemonetics
HANS Hansen Natural
CLX Clorox
WEC Wisconsin Energy
XEL Xcel Energy
CMTL Comtech Tele
IPCC Infinity Property & Casualty
LNCE Lance
CVA Covanta
LNDC Landec
CBZ Cbiz

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

VMW VMware
KOP Koppers Holdings
SGR Shaw Group
WTNY Whitney Holding
ZRAN Zoran
RVBD Riverbed Technology
JEC Jacobs Engineering
LVS Las Vegas Sands
ACGY Acergy
AFCE AFC Enterprises
AMSC American Superconductor
BRKR Bruker
ESEA Euroseas
ESLR Evergreen Solar
SOLF Solarfun Power Holdings
RMBS Rambus
WYNN Wynn Resorts
MICC Millicon Intl
SAPE Sapient
RRGB Red Robin Gourmet
FLR Fluor
MTL Mechel Steel
NBR Nabors
AGN Allergan
MRCY Mercury Computer
LM Legg Mason
BIG Big Lots
CVI CVR Energy
BPHX BluePhoenix Solutions
AMFI Amcore Financial
ITP Intertape Polymer

Breakout Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group
ETM Entercom
HZO Marinemax
FORD Forward Industries
BTIM BioTime
CSCX Cardiac Science
EMAG Emageon
DAIO Data I/O
DCM NTT DoCoMo
CADM Cardima
MDOR Magnum d'Or Resources
CHRK Cherokee Intl

Thoughts....

I apologize for not being around in the past week. A few things came up, and I didn't want to waste everyone's time with a poor review for the week. I've included a few setups in the post tonight that I feel offer a lot of reward with minimal risk. They are all based on intraday charts. To see the full chart, click on the picture.

As the "Sentiment" chart indicates in the "Index Watch" post, we are currently in an area where the majority of the risk is with the bears. A hard push lower off the open or in the AM should be a good opportunity to cover shorts and establish some long positions. Personally, I'll be focused on the ETF setups posted below.

I don't have time to post the charts, but here are a few short term "Double Bottom" setups:

VLCM - $9.45 (Target $13.25)
FARO - $13.82 (Target $16.90)
GLNG - $5.00 (Target $7.50)
SAPE - $4.05 (Target $5.80)
EXEL - $2.89 (Target $3.90)

If you aren't willing to use TIGHT stops (i.e. 1/4 to a 1/2), it would be a good decision to avoid the trade. I'll only do them "if" they get to the level I'm watching in the next day or two. Also, if they don't reverse in a timely manner, I'll bail out of the trade because they will likely fail.

Index Watch for November 13, 2008

New Setups for November 13, 2008

New Setups for November 4, 2008