Spreadsheet for December 1, 2008

I've created a spreadsheet for the Short & Breakout Setups. Since I post so many, I thought it might be helpful to share a condensed watch list with the key technical values. It's important to realize that many of the technical levels change on a day to day basis so you still have to keep a chart overhead. I'll improve it over the next couple of weeks. If anyone has any other ideas, send me an email.

Link

Thoughts....

Once again, I've posted a lot of setups to ponder over before Monday. There seems to be some confusion how I trade the short setups. I use two methods when I short. First, I just go in at the level I'm interested in and slap a stop on it that fits my personal trading style. Or, I'll time my entry using the 60 minute chart. I'll wait for a lower high and go in once the most recent lows are broken on that chart. I'll use those highs as my stop. Here are a couple of chart examples that I hope clear any questions:

Chart #1 - MTL (Daily Chart)
Chart #2 - MTL (60 Minute Chart)

Index Watch for December 1, 2008

Review for Week of December 1, 2008

Intraday Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

IWM Russell 2000 iShares
IAI U.S. Broker-Dealers iShares
SKF UltraShort Financials
MZZ UltraShort Mid Cap 400

Short Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

IAU COMEX Gold Trust iShares
ABMD Abiomed
AFAM Almost Family
OCN Ocwen Financial
ORH Odyssey RE Holdings
CUB Cubic Corp
WWE World Wrestling Entertainment
IDCC InterDigital
CMP Compass Minerals
HK Petrohawk Energy
NLY Annaly Capital
MPR Met-Pro
TKC Turkcell
UPS UPS
PETS PetMed Express
HMSY Health Management Systems
RGLD Royal Gold
SKT Tanger Factory Outlets
APOL Apollo Group
MHS Medco Health Solutions
MLM Martin Marietta Materials
MMP Magellan Midstream Partners
ASTE Astec Industries
AIT Applied Industrial Tech
ARJ Arch Chemicals
AXYS Axys Technologies
DNB Dun & Bradstreet
DW Drew Industries
FSYS Fuel Systems Solutions
GEO GEO Group
MTD Mettler Toledo
NAFC Nash-Finch
ESI ITT Educational Services
KAMN Kaman
ALGT Allegiant Travel
AOC Aon Corp
RE Everest RE Group
ATO Atmos Energy
LNT Alliant Energy
WEC Wisconsin Enegy
XEL Xcel Energy
MCD McDonalds
BMS Bemis
CASY Caseys General Stores
CHD Church & Dwight
LH Laboratory Amer
LMNX Luminex
CLHB Clean Harbors
CMTL Comtech Tele
XOM Exxon Mobil
TEVA Teva Pharma
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems
D Dominion Resources
DV Devry
EOG EOG Resources
SPTN Spartan Stores
SRCL Stericycle
EPIQ EPIQ Systems
GILD Gilead Sciences
EZPW EZCORP
IPCC Infinity Property & Casual
PTV Pactiv

Breakout Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

ALD Allied Capital
IO ION Geophysical
PPO Polypore Intl
TTES T-3 Energy Services
RPT Ramco Property Trust
TRMA Trico Marine
AMRI Albany Molecular Research
BLDR Builders FirstSource
LINTA Liberty Media
XRM Xerium Technologies
ZQK Quicksilver
KFN KKR Financial
LIZ Liz Claiborne
SPIR Spire
SRZ Sunrise Senior Living
MSO Martha Stewart Living
PLD Prologis Trust
DRYS Dry Ships
TAM TAM S.A.
TC Thompson Creek Metals
TCK Teck Cominco
CBL CBL & Associates
LVS Las Vegas Sands
HGSI Human Genome
ENTG Entegris
HTCH Hutchinson Technology
CMZ Compton Petroleum
BKD Brookdale Senior Living
ESC Emeritus
DFT DuPont Fabros Tech
STX Seagate Technology
AMLN Amylin Pharma
BEE Strategic Hotel & Resorts
ABD Acco Brands
CNTF China TechFaith Wireless
DCM NTT DoCoMo
FORD Forward Industries
FRPT Force Protection
SIRF SiRF Technology

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

VMW VMware
COIN Converted Organics
ITP Intertape Polymer

Updated Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

FLR Fluor
VECO Veeco Instruments
VPRT VistaPrint
TRW TRW Automotive
HIG Hartford Financial
MTL Mechel Steel
SLW Silver Wheaton
SMG Scotts Company
CGX Consolidated Graphics
CZZ Cossan
ASYT Asyst Technologies
ETM Entercom Communications
DMC Document Security Systems
AZC Augusta Resources

Thoughts....

I posted a few long and short setups worth watching over the next day or so. It's always difficult to know whats going to occur during a holiday week, but I still think there are opportunities to make a few cheap trades. I'd personally prefer the drift up to continue because it'll provide us with more shorting opportunities.

Index Watch for November 28, 2008

New Setups for November 28, 2008

Short Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

IAU iShares COMEX Gold Trust
ORH Odyssey RE Holdings
OCN Ocwen Financial
MLM Martin Marietta Materials
SKT Tanger Factory Outlet Centers
NLY Annaly Capital Management
MPR Met-Pro
IDCC InterDigital
MHS Medco Health Solutions
ESI ITT Educational Services
SHY 1-3 Year T-Bond Fund iShares

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

TCK Teck Cominco
AHD Atlas Pipeline
PPO Polypore Intl
XRM Xerium Tech
HIG Hartford Financial
TAM TAM S.A.
KFN KKR Financial
HTCH Hutchinson Technology
CBL CBL & Associates
PLD Prologis Trust
TRW TRW Automotive
BKD Brookdale Senior Living

Education - Inside Stick Scan

This is a real simple scan that I don't take advantage of as often as I should. When I get burned out or bored with the market, I'll trade a "Inside Stick" setup. They are similar to the "Bounce Scan" in that I want the price to be "stretched" from the 50 Day MA. If it works, it'll have some room to run. I trade them long and short, and I consider them short term in nature 95% of the time. It's also important for the days range in the third stick to be narrow, which holds the risk to a minimum.

[type = stock] and [country = us] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 100000] and [daily close >= 1] and [daily close <= 30] and [2 days ago daily high >= yesterday's daily high] and [yesterday's daily high >= daily high] and [2 days ago daily low <= yesterday's daily low] and [yesterday's daily low <= daily low]

Example #1
Example #2

Thoughts....

I posted a few aggressive and short term long setups to keep an eye on as well as an alternate scenario to the "Broad Pattern" I posted over the weekend regarding the 60 minute charts. I also posted a scan with a couple of examples I use at Stockcharts.com. I'll provide a link to it from the home page during the week with some different variations to it.

Index Watch for November 25, 2008

New Setups for November 25, 2008

Education - Short Term Long Scan

I use this scan to find short term long trade setups. It works well once the market consolidates for 2 - 4 days after falling sharply over a period of weeks. Although I run it daily, it has historically produced a multiple of candidates only a few times over the course of a year. When I scroll through the charts, I look for stocks where the price action is "stretched" from the 50 Day Moving Average. Also, I want the 8 Day Moving Average to be "curling up" and under the closing price. The scan with examples:

Scan #1
[type = stock] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 100000] and [daily sma(60,daily close) > 1] and [daily close >= yesterday's daily close] and [daily close >= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.75] and [daily close <= daily sma(20,daily close)] and [2 days ago daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= 80] and [daily low <= daily sma(8,daily close)]

Example #1

Example #2

Scan #2
[type = stock] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 75000] and [daily sma(60,daily close) > 1] and [daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.50] and [daily close <= daily sma(20,daily close)] and [daily close <= 20] and [daily low <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily high >= daily sma(8,daily close)]

Scan #3
[type = stock] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 100000] and [daily sma(60,daily close) > 1] and [daily close >= yesterday's daily close] and [daily high >= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.75] and [daily close <= daily sma(20,daily close)] and [2 days ago daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= 80] and [daily low <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)]

Thoughts....

The recent action in the market isn't providing me with many new and objective setups to post. When it does, I'll get them up as quick as I can.

With the 2002 lows now being taken out, the next area of significance to keep an eye for the S&P 500 is 650. This is illustrated on the monthly chart in the "Index Watch" by a trendline that extends to 1982. Another chart that interests me in the same section is the monthly chart of the U.S. Dollar. As it approaches the Right Shoulder in the massive Head & Shoulders pattern, it's possible this phase of the greenback rally may be nearing an end, which gives me a little hope for the market.

I'm going to post some of my scans during the week with examples.

Index Watch for November 24, 2008

Review for Week of November 24, 2008

Intraday Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

DUG UltraShort Oil & Gas
SDS UltraShort S&P 500
MVV Ultra MidCap 400
UNG U.S. Natural Gas Fund
DBA PowerShares Agriculture
TWM UltraShort Russell 2000
SMN UltraShort Basic Materials
SRS UltraShort Real Estate
DXD UltraShort Dow 30
SDP UltraShort Utilities
FXY CurrencyShares Japanese Yen
GLD streetTRACKS Gold Trust
EEM iShares Emerging Markets

Short Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

BMS Bemis
CASY Casey's General Stores
PETS PetMed Express
RGLD Royal Gold
SMG Scotts Co
TEVA Teva Pharma
ALGT Allegiant Travel
ICFI ICF International
EPIQ Epiq Systems
HMSY Health Management Systems
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems
SPTN Spartan Stores
SRCL Stericycle
GENZ Genzyme
GILD Gilead Sciences
CHD Church & Dwight
LNT Alliant Energy
ATO Atmos Energy
WEC Wisconsin Energy
XEL Xcel Energy
XOM Exxon Mobil
EW Edwards LifeSciences
AOC Aon Corp
LMNX Luminex
GHDX Genomic Health
LH Laboratory Amer
CLHB Clean Harbors
CMTL Cometech Tele
SJM The J.M. Smucker Co
NAFC Nash Finch
NAT Nordic American Tanker
EZPW EZCORP
D Dominion Resources
MCD McDonalds
IPCC Infinity Property & Casualty
DVA DaVita
BDE Bois d'Arc Energy
HANS Hansen Natural
LNCE Lance
CLX Clorox
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
CERN Cerner

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

BAC Bank of America
VMW VMware
COIN Converted Organics
BRCD Brocade Communications
BRCM Broadcom
SLW Silver Wheaton
MS Morgan Stanley
MTL Mechel Steel
MICC Millicom Cellular
WYNN Wynn Resorts
LM Legg Mason
CVI CVR Energy
CZZ Cosan
CRME Cardiome Pharma
PFBC Preferred Bank
REVU Princeton Review
WTNY Whitney Holding
RMTR Ramtron
DAIO Data I/O
ITP Intertape Polymer

Breakout Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

CGX Consolidated Graphics
VPRT VistaPrint
HL Hecla Mining
DFT DuPont Fabros Tech
LPX Louisiana Pacific
ETM Entercom Communications
DMC Document Security Systems
FRPT Force Protection
AZC Augusta Resource
EMAG Emageon
CHRK Cherokee Intl
DCM NTT DoCoMo
RURL Rural/Metro

Thoughts....

I didn't need to, but I posted a few more aggressive setups that are at or near actionable levels. If discipline is maintained, they all offer minimal risk.

Although it feels like the bottom is going to fall out any moment, I don't have a clue where we're headed over the short term. There's no point in trying to predict the bottom because it's an impossible task. Until things clear up, I'm going to poke along and control my positions by following the rules that help me survive. My trades will continue to be around key and objective S/R levels.

New Setups for November 18, 2008

Thoughts....

If I'm anything, it's flexible. I trade what I see. It took me a long time to realize the market loves a flexible mind. When a flexible mind sees the situation getting complex, it immediately moves to reduce the complexity by reducing or eliminating the noise of the unknown. In other words, trade what you see...not what you think, read, or hear from the talking heads on CNBC.

I've posted a lot of new setups to the watch for the coming week. Along with the regular setups, I've included some short term "Intraday" and "Double Bottom" opportunities that offer favorable risk/reward if we trade them with discipline.

I haven't forgotten about posting some scans / educational content. I just haven't had the time to put anything together yet. I'll have something up during Thanksgiving week.

I'll be around during the week to make a few posts. If you haven't already done so, sign up for the free "Email Service."

Index Watch for November 17, 2008

Review for Week of November 17, 2008

Intraday Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

IWM Russell 2000 iShares
USO United States Oil Fund
QLD Ultra QQQ
SSO Ultra S&P 500
SRS UltraShort Real Estate
IYR Real Estate iShares
MZZ ProShares UltraShort Mid Cap 400
SCC UltraShort Consumer Services
SDP UltraShort Utilities
DXD UltraShort Dow 30
DDM Ultra Dow 30
IAI iShares U.S. Broker Dealers
UYG Ultra Financials
DIG ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas
SKF UltraShort Financials
SMN UltraShort Basic Materials
EEM iShares Emerging Markets
FXY CurrencyShares Japanese Yen
GLD streetTRACKS Gold Trust
DBA PowerShares Agriculture

ETF Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

GSG Commodity iShares
SHY 1-3 Year Treasury Fund
OIL iPath S&P Crude Oil Index
DXO PowerShares Crude Oil Double Long
GLD streetTRACKS Gold Trust

Short Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

AFAM Almost Family
FSYS Fuel Systems
CASY Casey's General Stores
MYGN Myriad Genetics
ESI ITT Educational Services
EPIQ EPIQ Systems
HMSY Health Management Systems
PETS PetMed Express
NAT Nordic American Tanker
ABMD Abiomed
EW Edwards Lifesciences
SMG Scotts Company
KAMN Kaman
BNI Burlington Northern
NSC Norfolk Southern
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems
GILD Gilead Sciences
GTXI GTx
GXDX Genoptix
TECH Techne
UTHR United Therapeutics
BAX Baxter Intl
EOG EOG Resources
SPTN Spartan Stores
XOM Exxon Mobil
NAFC Nash Finch
HEI Heico
CHD Church & Dwight
CLHB Clean Harbors
SRCL Stericycle
LH Laboratory Amer Holding
ALXN Alexion Pharma
GENZ Genzyme General
GHDX Genomic Health
LNT Alliant Energy
DVA DaVita
EZPW EZCORP
AMED Amedisys
BDE Bois d'Arc Energy
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
MCD McDonalds
RAVN Raven Industries
SJM The J.M. Smucker Company
SJT San Juan Basin Royalty Trust
CEPH Cephalon
LFC China Life Insurance
LHCG LHC Group
CFFN Capital Federal Financial
AMGN Amgen
DV Devry
PTV Pactiv
HAE Haemonetics
HANS Hansen Natural
CLX Clorox
WEC Wisconsin Energy
XEL Xcel Energy
CMTL Comtech Tele
IPCC Infinity Property & Casualty
LNCE Lance
CVA Covanta
LNDC Landec
CBZ Cbiz

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

VMW VMware
KOP Koppers Holdings
SGR Shaw Group
WTNY Whitney Holding
ZRAN Zoran
RVBD Riverbed Technology
JEC Jacobs Engineering
LVS Las Vegas Sands
ACGY Acergy
AFCE AFC Enterprises
AMSC American Superconductor
BRKR Bruker
ESEA Euroseas
ESLR Evergreen Solar
SOLF Solarfun Power Holdings
RMBS Rambus
WYNN Wynn Resorts
MICC Millicon Intl
SAPE Sapient
RRGB Red Robin Gourmet
FLR Fluor
MTL Mechel Steel
NBR Nabors
AGN Allergan
MRCY Mercury Computer
LM Legg Mason
BIG Big Lots
CVI CVR Energy
BPHX BluePhoenix Solutions
AMFI Amcore Financial
ITP Intertape Polymer

Breakout Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group
ETM Entercom
HZO Marinemax
FORD Forward Industries
BTIM BioTime
CSCX Cardiac Science
EMAG Emageon
DAIO Data I/O
DCM NTT DoCoMo
CADM Cardima
MDOR Magnum d'Or Resources
CHRK Cherokee Intl

Thoughts....

I apologize for not being around in the past week. A few things came up, and I didn't want to waste everyone's time with a poor review for the week. I've included a few setups in the post tonight that I feel offer a lot of reward with minimal risk. They are all based on intraday charts. To see the full chart, click on the picture.

As the "Sentiment" chart indicates in the "Index Watch" post, we are currently in an area where the majority of the risk is with the bears. A hard push lower off the open or in the AM should be a good opportunity to cover shorts and establish some long positions. Personally, I'll be focused on the ETF setups posted below.

I don't have time to post the charts, but here are a few short term "Double Bottom" setups:

VLCM - $9.45 (Target $13.25)
FARO - $13.82 (Target $16.90)
GLNG - $5.00 (Target $7.50)
SAPE - $4.05 (Target $5.80)
EXEL - $2.89 (Target $3.90)

If you aren't willing to use TIGHT stops (i.e. 1/4 to a 1/2), it would be a good decision to avoid the trade. I'll only do them "if" they get to the level I'm watching in the next day or two. Also, if they don't reverse in a timely manner, I'll bail out of the trade because they will likely fail.

Index Watch for November 13, 2008

New Setups for November 13, 2008