I've never understood why traders feel the need to make predictions. Trading based on predictions (e.g. hope) is a fool's game and impairs our ability to make clear and objective decisions. In my opinion, they should be based on what is seen. Once you understand what you see, it's possible to make the decisions that lead to being a succesfull and profitable trader.
In my opinion, there are still too many charts clinging for dear life to say the bottom is. A final wash-out will take everything down, and that hasn't occurred yet. Unfortunately, it's impossible to say where we're headed over the short term. I've posted some key levels I'm watching on the S&P 500 chart below that will be my guide over the next week. I've also included a spread sheet listing the key technical levels for the Short & Breakout Setups.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Thoughts....
Review for Week of December 8, 2008
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
PSQ Short QQQ ProShares
FXP UltraShort China
UUP U.S. Dollar PowerShares
FXE Currency Shares Euro Trust
FXY Currency Shares Japanese Yen
MZZ UltraShort MidCap 400
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
DCM NTT DoCoMo
SXCI SXC Health Solutions
ASH Ashland
DIOD Diodes
OXM Oxford Industries
DRYS Dry Ships
ENG ENGlobal
DPZ Domino's Pizza
LVS Las Vegas Sands
LSE CapLease
NNBR NN, Inc
PHIIK Petroleum Helicopters
PLD Prologis Trust
TBSI TBSI International
TNL Technitrol
TPGI Thomas Properties
NSIT Insight Enterprises
NSTC Ness Technologies
AHII Animal Health International
ENTG Entegris
DDR Developers Diversified RE
BRKR Bruker
HDNG Hardinge
ID L-1 Identity Solutions
IO ION Geophysical
KFN KKR Financial
SPIR Spire
SRZ Sunrise Senior Living
LIZ Liz Claiborne
BEE Strategic Hotel & Resorts
STX Seagate Technology
CPY CPI Corp
TRMA Trico Marine
CTCM CTC Media
AVNX Avanex
CNTF China TechFaith Wireless
MFW M&F Worldwide
CMZ Compton Petroleum
GIII GIII-Apparel Group
XRM Xerium
XTXI Crosstex Energy
ZQK Quicksilver
FORD Forward Industries
FRPT Force Protection
CADM Cardima
ACUS Acusphere
MOSH Mesa Offshore Trust
MDOR Magnum d'Or Resources
SIRF SiRF Technologies
XJT Express Jet
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
ABMD Abiomed
AFAM Almost Family
CAL Continental Airlines
MVL Marvel Enterprises
NUVA NuVasive
ELMG EMS Technologies
PNRA Panera Bread
QGEN Qiagen
PJC Piper Jaffray
EPIQ EPIQ Systems
RATE BankRate
BFS Saul Centers
COST Costco
BRK/B Berkshire Hathaway
CEPH Cephalon
OCN Ocwen Financial
RGLD Royal Gold
SKT Tanger Factor Outlet
PDA Perdiagao
MLM Martin Marietta Materials
MPR Met-Pro
HMSY Health Management Systems
TSCO Tractor Supply
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems
EZPW EZCORP
NAFC Nash-Finch
TECH Techne
TEVA Teva Pharma
TKC Turkcell
RE Everest RE Group
NAT Nordic American Tanker
SPTN Spartan Stores
PCR Perini
NLY Annaly Capital Mgt
JAH Jarden
ORH Odyssey RE Holdings
LFC China Life Insurance
LH Laboratory Amer Holding
LMNX Luminex
GILD Gilead Sciences
HANS Hansen Natural
CBZ Cbiz
CUB Cubic Corp
ESI ITT Educational Services
APOL Apollo Group
CFFN Capitol Federal Financial
CLHB Clean Harbors
CMTL Comtech Tele
ICFI ICF Intl
BMS Bemis
PETS PetMed Express
ARLP Alliance Resource Partners
ASTE Astec Industries
MCD McDonalds
MHS Medco Health Solutions
UPS UPS
URS URS Corp
WWE World Wrestling Entertainment
XEL Xcel Energy
XOM Exxon Mobil
WES Wisconsin Energy
LNCE Lance
DV Devry
LNT Alliant Energy
ATO Atmos Energy
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
ITP Intertape Polymer
TCK Tech Cominco
AMD Advanced Micro Devices
BBG Bill Barrett
ACI Arch Coal
FCL Foundation Coal
BTU Peabody Energy
ATN Atlas Energy
CLZR Candela
DAIO Data I/O
REVU Princeton Review
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
CASY Caseys General Stores
PETS PetMed Express
CHD Church & Dwight
SKF UltraShort Financials
QCOR Questcor Pharma
VMW VMware
ABD Acco Brands
ANN Ann Taylor Stores
PPO Polypore Intl
ESC Emeritus
TAM TAM S.A.
UEPS Net 1 Ueps Tech
AMLN Amylin Pharma
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Thoughts....
As indicated on the S&P 60 minute chart, I see several patterns.....a Head & Shoulders Pattern, a Broad Pattern, Parallel Lines, and an Inverted Head & Shoulders that isn't marked so it's clear I'm confused. The Sentiment Indicator I use also indicates indecision. Until the picture clears, I'll take a real simple approach. I'm going to trade around key S/R levels on the 60 minute chart. In other words, I'll short objective resistance levels and scale out of longs. If those resistance levels are broken, I'll get out of shorts and look at the Bounce Setups for entries. If the market goes the other way, I'll be a buyer at objective support levels and I'll scale out of shorts. I realize that's wordy but it really is simple. Remember, if you want to be a pro, you have to trade a pro. You buy support....you short resistance. If those levels are taken out, you get out with a minimal loss.
I added a few setups to keep an eye that weren't posted over the weekend. I included two new ETF setups that I've never traded. They are 3x leveraged ETFs from Direxion, and are only suited for the most disciplined and aggressive traders.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Spreadsheet for December 1, 2008
I've created a spreadsheet for the Short & Breakout Setups. Since I post so many, I thought it might be helpful to share a condensed watch list with the key technical values. It's important to realize that many of the technical levels change on a day to day basis so you still have to keep a chart overhead. I'll improve it over the next couple of weeks. If anyone has any other ideas, send me an email.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Thoughts....
Once again, I've posted a lot of setups to ponder over before Monday. There seems to be some confusion how I trade the short setups. I use two methods when I short. First, I just go in at the level I'm interested in and slap a stop on it that fits my personal trading style. Or, I'll time my entry using the 60 minute chart. I'll wait for a lower high and go in once the most recent lows are broken on that chart. I'll use those highs as my stop. Here are a couple of chart examples that I hope clear any questions:
Chart #1 - MTL (Daily Chart)
Chart #2 - MTL (60 Minute Chart)
Friday, November 28, 2008
Review for Week of December 1, 2008
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
IWM Russell 2000 iShares
IAI U.S. Broker-Dealers iShares
SKF UltraShort Financials
MZZ UltraShort Mid Cap 400
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
IAU COMEX Gold Trust iShares
ABMD Abiomed
AFAM Almost Family
OCN Ocwen Financial
ORH Odyssey RE Holdings
CUB Cubic Corp
WWE World Wrestling Entertainment
IDCC InterDigital
CMP Compass Minerals
HK Petrohawk Energy
NLY Annaly Capital
MPR Met-Pro
TKC Turkcell
UPS UPS
PETS PetMed Express
HMSY Health Management Systems
RGLD Royal Gold
SKT Tanger Factory Outlets
APOL Apollo Group
MHS Medco Health Solutions
MLM Martin Marietta Materials
MMP Magellan Midstream Partners
ASTE Astec Industries
AIT Applied Industrial Tech
ARJ Arch Chemicals
AXYS Axys Technologies
DNB Dun & Bradstreet
DW Drew Industries
FSYS Fuel Systems Solutions
GEO GEO Group
MTD Mettler Toledo
NAFC Nash-Finch
ESI ITT Educational Services
KAMN Kaman
ALGT Allegiant Travel
AOC Aon Corp
RE Everest RE Group
ATO Atmos Energy
LNT Alliant Energy
WEC Wisconsin Enegy
XEL Xcel Energy
MCD McDonalds
BMS Bemis
CASY Caseys General Stores
CHD Church & Dwight
LH Laboratory Amer
LMNX Luminex
CLHB Clean Harbors
CMTL Comtech Tele
XOM Exxon Mobil
TEVA Teva Pharma
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems
D Dominion Resources
DV Devry
EOG EOG Resources
SPTN Spartan Stores
SRCL Stericycle
EPIQ EPIQ Systems
GILD Gilead Sciences
EZPW EZCORP
IPCC Infinity Property & Casual
PTV Pactiv
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
ALD Allied Capital
IO ION Geophysical
PPO Polypore Intl
TTES T-3 Energy Services
RPT Ramco Property Trust
TRMA Trico Marine
AMRI Albany Molecular Research
BLDR Builders FirstSource
LINTA Liberty Media
XRM Xerium Technologies
ZQK Quicksilver
KFN KKR Financial
LIZ Liz Claiborne
SPIR Spire
SRZ Sunrise Senior Living
MSO Martha Stewart Living
PLD Prologis Trust
DRYS Dry Ships
TAM TAM S.A.
TC Thompson Creek Metals
TCK Teck Cominco
CBL CBL & Associates
LVS Las Vegas Sands
HGSI Human Genome
ENTG Entegris
HTCH Hutchinson Technology
CMZ Compton Petroleum
BKD Brookdale Senior Living
ESC Emeritus
DFT DuPont Fabros Tech
STX Seagate Technology
AMLN Amylin Pharma
BEE Strategic Hotel & Resorts
ABD Acco Brands
CNTF China TechFaith Wireless
DCM NTT DoCoMo
FORD Forward Industries
FRPT Force Protection
SIRF SiRF Technology
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
VMW VMware
COIN Converted Organics
ITP Intertape Polymer
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
FLR Fluor
VECO Veeco Instruments
VPRT VistaPrint
TRW TRW Automotive
HIG Hartford Financial
MTL Mechel Steel
SLW Silver Wheaton
SMG Scotts Company
CGX Consolidated Graphics
CZZ Cossan
ASYT Asyst Technologies
ETM Entercom Communications
DMC Document Security Systems
AZC Augusta Resources
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Thoughts....
I posted a few long and short setups worth watching over the next day or so. It's always difficult to know whats going to occur during a holiday week, but I still think there are opportunities to make a few cheap trades. I'd personally prefer the drift up to continue because it'll provide us with more shorting opportunities.
New Setups for November 28, 2008
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
IAU iShares COMEX Gold Trust
ORH Odyssey RE Holdings
OCN Ocwen Financial
MLM Martin Marietta Materials
SKT Tanger Factory Outlet Centers
NLY Annaly Capital Management
MPR Met-Pro
IDCC InterDigital
MHS Medco Health Solutions
ESI ITT Educational Services
SHY 1-3 Year T-Bond Fund iShares
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
TCK Teck Cominco
AHD Atlas Pipeline
PPO Polypore Intl
XRM Xerium Tech
HIG Hartford Financial
TAM TAM S.A.
KFN KKR Financial
HTCH Hutchinson Technology
CBL CBL & Associates
PLD Prologis Trust
TRW TRW Automotive
BKD Brookdale Senior Living
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Education - Inside Stick Scan
This is a real simple scan that I don't take advantage of as often as I should. When I get burned out or bored with the market, I'll trade a "Inside Stick" setup. They are similar to the "Bounce Scan" in that I want the price to be "stretched" from the 50 Day MA. If it works, it'll have some room to run. I trade them long and short, and I consider them short term in nature 95% of the time. It's also important for the days range in the third stick to be narrow, which holds the risk to a minimum.
[type = stock] and [country = us] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 100000] and [daily close >= 1] and [daily close <= 30] and [2 days ago daily high >= yesterday's daily high] and [yesterday's daily high >= daily high] and [2 days ago daily low <= yesterday's daily low] and [yesterday's daily low <= daily low]
Monday, November 24, 2008
Thoughts....
I posted a few aggressive and short term long setups to keep an eye on as well as an alternate scenario to the "Broad Pattern" I posted over the weekend regarding the 60 minute charts. I also posted a scan with a couple of examples I use at Stockcharts.com. I'll provide a link to it from the home page during the week with some different variations to it.
Education - Short Term Long Scan
I use this scan to find short term long trade setups. It works well once the market consolidates for 2 - 4 days after falling sharply over a period of weeks. Although I run it daily, it has historically produced a multiple of candidates only a few times over the course of a year. When I scroll through the charts, I look for stocks where the price action is "stretched" from the 50 Day Moving Average. Also, I want the 8 Day Moving Average to be "curling up" and under the closing price. The scan with examples:
Scan #1
[type = stock] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 100000] and [daily sma(60,daily close) > 1] and [daily close >= yesterday's daily close] and [daily close >= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.75] and [daily close <= daily sma(20,daily close)] and [2 days ago daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= 80] and [daily low <= daily sma(8,daily close)]
[type = stock] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 75000] and [daily sma(60,daily close) > 1] and [daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.50] and [daily close <= daily sma(20,daily close)] and [daily close <= 20] and [daily low <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily high >= daily sma(8,daily close)]
Scan #3
[type = stock] and [daily sma(20,daily volume) > 100000] and [daily sma(60,daily close) > 1] and [daily close >= yesterday's daily close] and [daily high >= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.75] and [daily close <= daily sma(20,daily close)] and [2 days ago daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= 80] and [daily low <= daily sma(8,daily close)] and [daily close <= daily sma(8,daily close)]
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Thoughts....
The recent action in the market isn't providing me with many new and objective setups to post. When it does, I'll get them up as quick as I can.
With the 2002 lows now being taken out, the next area of significance to keep an eye for the S&P 500 is 650. This is illustrated on the monthly chart in the "Index Watch" by a trendline that extends to 1982. Another chart that interests me in the same section is the monthly chart of the U.S. Dollar. As it approaches the Right Shoulder in the massive Head & Shoulders pattern, it's possible this phase of the greenback rally may be nearing an end, which gives me a little hope for the market.
I'm going to post some of my scans during the week with examples.
Review for Week of November 24, 2008
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
DUG UltraShort Oil & Gas
SDS UltraShort S&P 500
MVV Ultra MidCap 400
UNG U.S. Natural Gas Fund
DBA PowerShares Agriculture
TWM UltraShort Russell 2000
SMN UltraShort Basic Materials
SRS UltraShort Real Estate
DXD UltraShort Dow 30
SDP UltraShort Utilities
FXY CurrencyShares Japanese Yen
GLD streetTRACKS Gold Trust
EEM iShares Emerging Markets
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
BMS Bemis
CASY Casey's General Stores
PETS PetMed Express
RGLD Royal Gold
SMG Scotts Co
TEVA Teva Pharma
ALGT Allegiant Travel
ICFI ICF International
EPIQ Epiq Systems
HMSY Health Management Systems
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems
SPTN Spartan Stores
SRCL Stericycle
GENZ Genzyme
GILD Gilead Sciences
CHD Church & Dwight
LNT Alliant Energy
ATO Atmos Energy
WEC Wisconsin Energy
XEL Xcel Energy
XOM Exxon Mobil
EW Edwards LifeSciences
AOC Aon Corp
LMNX Luminex
GHDX Genomic Health
LH Laboratory Amer
CLHB Clean Harbors
CMTL Cometech Tele
SJM The J.M. Smucker Co
NAFC Nash Finch
NAT Nordic American Tanker
EZPW EZCORP
D Dominion Resources
MCD McDonalds
IPCC Infinity Property & Casualty
DVA DaVita
BDE Bois d'Arc Energy
HANS Hansen Natural
LNCE Lance
CLX Clorox
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
CERN Cerner
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
BAC Bank of America
VMW VMware
COIN Converted Organics
BRCD Brocade Communications
BRCM Broadcom
SLW Silver Wheaton
MS Morgan Stanley
MTL Mechel Steel
MICC Millicom Cellular
WYNN Wynn Resorts
LM Legg Mason
CVI CVR Energy
CZZ Cosan
CRME Cardiome Pharma
PFBC Preferred Bank
REVU Princeton Review
WTNY Whitney Holding
RMTR Ramtron
DAIO Data I/O
ITP Intertape Polymer
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)
CGX Consolidated Graphics
VPRT VistaPrint
HL Hecla Mining
DFT DuPont Fabros Tech
LPX Louisiana Pacific
ETM Entercom Communications
DMC Document Security Systems
FRPT Force Protection
AZC Augusta Resource
EMAG Emageon
CHRK Cherokee Intl
DCM NTT DoCoMo
RURL Rural/Metro
