Thoughts....

I've included some market breadth & sentiment charts I follow in the weekend update. I also added a few new and fresh setups to the watch list. Since it's likely going to be another slow and boring week, anything I do will be small with tight stops. The fireworks / volatility should be back next week. I'm going to be adding more educational content over the next couple of days including scans.

SpreadSheet

Index Watch for December 29, 2008

Breadth & Sentiment for December 29, 2008

Review for Week of December 29, 2008

Breakout Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

HEV Ener1
ZLC Zale Corp
XTXI Crosstex Energy
ORBK Orbotech
RRI Reliant Energy
IVN Ivanhoe Mines
LEE Lee Enterprises
XIN Xinyuan Real Estate
IBNK Integra Bank
ES Energy Solutions
BC Brunswick
GOL Gol Linhas Aereas
OPNT OPNET Technologies
SEAC SeaChange
TSYS TeleCommunication Systems
EBHI Eddie Bauer Holdings
KIRK Kirkland's
ACAS American Capital
GKK Gramercy Capital
XJT ExpressJet Holdings
MEG Media General

Short Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

AUXL Auxillium Pharma
VIVO Meridian Bioscience
CALM Cal-Maine Foods
KGC Kinross Gold
PAYX Paychex
ITT ITT Industries
LMT Lockheed Martin
ORH Odyssey RE Holdings
AGG Lehman Bond Fund iShares
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive
HCC HCC Insurance Holdings
MVL Marvel Enterprises
MYGN Myriad Genetics
UL Unilever
NEM Newmont Mining
RYAAY Ryanair Holdings
RATE BankRate
NLY Annaly Capital Mgt
CMN Cantel Medical
HEI Heico
CEF Central Fund of Canada
CMP Compass Minerals
CHSI Catalyst Health Solutions
CVA Covanta Holding
DCP Dyncorp Intl
TEVA Teva Pharma
DPL DPL Inc
GMCR Green Mountain Coffee
COH Coach
AIR AAR Corp
CAL Continental Airlines
CLH Clean Harbors
LNCE Lance Inc.
PCR Perini Corp
PETS PetMed Express
MHS Medco Health Solutions
LH Laboratory Amer
LIHR Lihir Gold
OCN Ocwen Financial
LL Lumber Liquidators
GILD Gilead Sciences
QSII Quality Systems
EW Edwards LifeSciences
FSYS Fuel Systems Solutions
HMSY Health Management Systems
ICFI ICF International
IPCC Infinity Property & Casualty
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems
QGEN Qiagen
CUB Cubic Corp
CBZ CBIZ Inc
WEC Wisconsin Energy
XEL Xcel Energy

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

CELL Brightpoint
PLCM Polycom
VMW VMware
YGE Yingli Green Energy
LSE CapLease
QTWW Quantum Fuel Systems
NCX Nova Chemicals
PBY Pep Boys

Thoughts....

I have about 1800 charts annotated and stored at stockcharts.com. As you can imagine, it takes an enormous effort to keep them all up to date. With the market volume likely to shrink the next couple of weeks, I'm taking it as an opportunity to get everything current.

Unfortunately, I haven't had the time to go over my scans so I don't have a lot of new setups, and I'm not going to be able to post all the charts I normally do. I have, however, attached a SpreadSheet with the "Short Setups" I'll be watching during the week. I've included the price level with an objective and low risk stop loss. If I find the time, I'll post some long / breakout setups early in the week.

I'll use Twitter thoughout the week to give the new folks an idea how I trade. If you're interested in knowing when a new post is made, I encourage everyone to sign up for the email alerts.

ShortSetups

Index Watch for December 22, 2008

Thoughts....

I posted a few "Intraday Setups" that are aggressive and suited more for the short term traders. If discipline is maintained with tight but objective stops, I feel they offer sufficient risk vs. reward. As illustrated on the Index Charts posted, the S&P and Gold both closed at resistance while the Dollar finished the day at strong support, which indicates to me the market is likely to be under some pressure in the short term. However, the sentiment indicator I follow looks the same now as it did this weekend so my enthusiasm is somewhat tempered. Until it changes, I'll continue to focus on trading around key S/R levels with tight stops.

Index Watch for December 17, 2008

New Setups for December 17, 2008

Thoughts....

I've scrolled through thousands of charts over the weekend, and I'm still seeing way more short setups as opposed to clear and objective long setups. The 50 Day Moving Average is starting to "catch up" to many of the bounce setups we've had during the past month, which eliminates their explosive potential. Once the 50 Day gets under the price and flattens out, we'll start having more long opportunities that we can hold for more than a day or three. It's just going to take some time.

I created a Twitter account last week. Once I find the time to figure out how it works, I'm going to post some of the trades I make. Hopefully, it'll give some of the new folks an idea how I trade. I also intend on posting more scans and other content over the next 3 weeks including improvements to the "Weekly Spreadsheet."

SpreadSheet

Index Watch for December 15, 2008

Review for Week of December 15, 2008

Breakout Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

BGP Borders Group
TCK Tech Cominco
APL Atlas Pipeline Partners
ASH Ashland
ENG ENGlobal
JRT JER Investors Trust
GVHR Gevity HR
LYV Live Nation
LVS Las Vegas Sands
IO ION Geophysical
LSR Life Sciences Research
BKD Brookdale Senior Living
ARA Aracruz Celulose
MFW M&F Worldwide
NSIT Insight Enterprises
AVNX Avanex
HDNG Hardinge
CNTF China TechFaith Wireless
BIOD Biodel
XRM Xerium Technologies
AHII Animal Health International
SIRF SiRF Technologies
FORD Forward Industries
XJT Express Jet

Short Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

BLL Ball Corp
CLC Clarcor
MYGN Myriad Genetics
PEGA Pegasystems
AIR AAR Corp
PLXS Plexus
TCL Tata Communications
TEVA Teva Pharma
PNRA Panera Bread
BKE Buckle
RYAAY Ryanair Holdings
ORLY Oreilly Automotive
RGLD Royal Gold
LIHR Lihr Gold
NEM Newmont Mining
GVA Granite Construction
CHSI Catalyst Health Solutions
UAM Universal American Financial
AMZN Amazon.com
GG Goldcorp
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill
CMP Compass Minerals
LL Lumber Liquidators
MVL Marvel Enterprises
MDU MDU Resources
FSYS Fuel Systems
FLR Fluor
URS URS Corp
SCNH Schnitzer Steel Industries
FMS Fresenius Medical Care
JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport
EW Edwards Lifesciences
NTAP Network Appliance
NUVA NuVasive
OCN Ocwen Financial
CNQR Concur Technologies
PCR Perini
PDA Perdigao
NLY Annaly Capital Management
GILD Gilead Sciences
GTXI GTx Inc
CUB Cubic Corp
CMTL Comtech Tele
QGEN Quigen N.V.
QSII Quality Systems
RATE BankRate
RE Everest RE Group
HURN Huron Consulting Group
CPSI Computer Programs & Systems
MHS Medco Health Solutions
AFAM Almost Family
ATG AGL Resources
GEO GEO Group
PETS PetMed Express
ELMG EMS Technologies
EPIQ EPIQ Systems
EZPW EZCORP
IDCC InterDigital
HK Petrohawk Energy
LMNX Luminex
AMGN Amgen
LH Laboratory Amer
CEPH Cephalon
CLHB Clean Harbors
TKC Turkcell
TSCO Tractor Supply
TSU Tele Celular Sul
ARLP Alliance Resource Partners
BMS Bemis
HANS Hansen Natural
SKT Tanger Factory Outlet
SPTN Spartan Stores
MPR Met-Pro
CBZ Cbiz
HMSY Health Management Systems
NAT Nordic American Tanker
ICFI ICF International
LFC China Life Insurance
WWE World Wrestling Entertainment
IPCC Infinity Property & Casualty
LNCE Lance Inc
LNT Alliant Energy
WEC Wisconsin Energy
XEL Xcel Energy
XOM Exxon Mobil
ORH Odyssey RE Holdings
ATO Atmos Energy

ETF Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

DXO PowerShares Crude Oil Double Long
IAU iShares COMEX Gold Trust
IEF 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

COF Capitol One Financial
LULU Luluemon Athletica
SEAC SeaChange International

Updated Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

CPY CPI Corp
DRYS Dry Ships
COIN Converted Organics
ABD Acco Brands
TBSI TBSI Intl
NTT DCM DoCoMo
SXCI SXC Health Solutions
ENTG Entegris
NNBR NN Inc
PPO Polypore Intl
ITP Intertape Polymer
DIOD Diodes
DPZ Domino's Pizza
BLDR Builders FirstSource
CBL CBL & Associates
CGX Consolidated Graphics
CLX Clorox
AXYS Axys Technologies

Thoughts....

I've never understood why traders feel the need to make predictions. Trading based on predictions (e.g. hope) is a fool's game and impairs our ability to make clear and objective decisions. In my opinion, they should be based on what is seen. Once you understand what you see, it's possible to make the decisions that lead to being a succesfull and profitable trader.

In my opinion, there are still too many charts clinging for dear life to say the bottom is. A final wash-out will take everything down, and that hasn't occurred yet. Unfortunately, it's impossible to say where we're headed over the short term. I've posted some key levels I'm watching on the S&P 500 chart below that will be my guide over the next week. I've also included a spread sheet listing the key technical levels for the Short & Breakout Setups.

SpreadSheet

Index Watch for December 8, 2008