Sunday, August 30, 2009

Thoughts....

The Weekend Review and Index Watch is finished and posted. I'll have the Trading Spreadsheet up later and have it linked here. Although I could be easily wrong, I think the market will make an intermediate term top sometime in October. Until the charts tell me otherwise, my primary focus will be buying the high volume breakouts and the long setups that pull back to objective support levels. I know I'll continue to trade around a few of the short setups, but I'll use very tight stops. If they work before I'm taken out, I'll take profits on the initial move down and I'll reset my stop near my entry to ensure a profitable trade.

Review for Week of August 31, 2009:

Breakout Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

AHII Animal Health Intl
BEE Strategic Hotel & Resorts
ABK Ambak Financial
KHD KHD Humboldt
PFAP Pacific Asia Petroleum
KMT Kennametal
FMCN Focus Media
OPXT OpNext
TSCM TheStreet.com
BBEP BreitBurn Energy
ACI Arch Coal
PLLL Parallel Petroleum
PNX Phoenix Companies
PCX Patriot Coal
ANR Alpha Natural Resources
ARP American Reprographics
AWC Alumina
BARE Bare Escentuals
BGP Borders Group
BXG BlueGreen
TWI Titan Intl
SPR Spirit AeroSystems
CCO Clear Channel
SD Sandridge Energy
SGI Silicon Graphics
CENX Century Aluminum
SRI Stoneridge
CGX Consolidated Graphics
SWKS Skyworks
TEX Terex
GMET GeoMet
TPGI Thomas Group Properties
CLNH Centerline Holdings
CPX Complete Production Services
CT Capital Trust
DMAN DemandTec
DRYS Dry Ships
EVII EV Innovations
FCSX FCStone Group
LYG Lloyds TSB Group
LYV Live Nation
MBI MBIA
NPO EnPro Industries
VTRO Vertro
WRES Warren Resources
XTEX Crosstex Energy
AB AllianceBernstein
AI Arlington Asset Investment
ALLP Alliance Pharma
ALTH Allos Therapeutics
AMB AMB Property
AMCN AirMedia
ARTG Art Technology
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
BJS BJ Services
CHD C&D Technologies
CTIC Cell Therapeutics
DLIA Delia's
DSGX Descartes Systems
ENZ Enzo BioChem
ERES eResearch Technology
GAP Great Atlantic & Pac Tea
GNA Gerdau AmeriSteel
HERO Hercules Offshore
HLCS Helicos BioScience
HSTX Harris Stratex Networks
ICO International Coal Group
INTT inTest
LQDT Liquidity Services
LXRX Lexicon Pharma
SRZ Sunrise Senior Living
MF MF Global
MGI MoneyGram
MITI Micromet
MMR McMoran Exploration
MPEL Melco PBL Entertainment
MTW Manitowoc
NBR Nabors Industries
NFP National Financial
NGS Natural Gas Services
PDS Precision Drilling
PEI Pennsylvania REIT
PTSC Patriot Scientific
RAIL FreightCar America
SONS Sonus Networks
ULTR Ultrapetrol
WTI W&T Offshore
ZOLL Zoll Medical

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

ANW Aegean Marine Petroleum
ASIA AsiaInfo Holdings
TOMO Tomo Therapy
AXL American Axle
AHD Atlas Pipeline Holdings
APL Atlas Pipeline Partners
AMLN Amylin Pharma
ATPG ATP Oil & Gas
ATRO Astronics
CAEI China Architectural
CCOI Cogent Communications
CDII China Direct
CEP Constellation Energy
CLF Cliffs Natural Resources
CML Compellant Technologies
DAKT Daktronics
DDR Developers Diversified
ELN Elan
ERTS Electronic Arts
EXM Excel Maritime
KOOL Thermogenesis
IO ION Geophysical
IRE Ireland Governor
JRCC James River Coal
LAVA Magma Design
SGMS Scientific Games
SIMO Silicon Motion Tech
SPWRA SunPower
TASR TASER Intl
TRMA Trico Marine
TTES T-3 Energy
WFR MEMC Electronic
XJT ExpressJet

Short Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

Technology:
BMC BMC Software
BRCM Broadcom
CNQR Concur Technologies
CPHD Cepheid
CTSH Cognizant Technology
DIOD Diodes
EXPE Expedia
FDS Factset Research
FFIV F5 Networks
FISV Fiserv
MICC Millicom Intl Cellular
MTD Mettler Toledo
NATI National Instruments
NETL NetLogic Microsystems
PAYX Paychex
SYNT Syntel
VSEA Varian Semi

Biotech & Health:
ALXN Alexion Pharma
AZN Astrazenaca
BIO Bio-Rad Labs
DGX Quest Diagnostics
ESRX Express Scripts
HRC Hill-Rom Holdings
HSIC Henry Schein
IDXX IDEXX Labs
IMA Inverness Medical Technology
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
LIFE Life Technologies
MDVN Medivation
PRGO Perrigo
PSYS Psychiatric Solutions

Consumer Goods:
KMB Kimberly Clark
MGA Magna Intl
MO Altria Group
NAV Navistar Intl
RAI Reynolds American
UL Unilever
VFC VFCorp

Financials:
AMG Affiliated Managers
AXP American Express
BAC Bank of America
JEF Jefferies Group
MTB M&T Bank

Industrial:
GR Goodrich
IP International Paper
IR Ingersoll-Rand
JOYG Joy Global
NDSN Nordson
NVR NVR Inc
VAL Valspar

Materials:
CBT Cabot
CCJ Cameco
IVN Ivanhoe Mines
LZ Lubrizol
NEU NewMarket
TRA Terra Industries

Retail:
ARO Aeropostale
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond
BBY Best Buy
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods
GYMB Gymboree
HELE Helen of Troy
NFLX Netflix
TGT Target

Other:
APC Anadarko Petroleum
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings
CI CIGNA
CLI Mack-Cali Realty
CPRT Copart
GPN Global Payments
KMP Kinder Morgan Energy
NTG Natco Group
R Ryder Systems
RNR Renaissance RE Holdings
SPG Simon Property Group

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Index Watch for August 28, 2009:

Index Charts

S&P 500 Index ($SPX) -- The key areas of S/R on the Intraday Chart are 1040 and 1010. On the Daily Chart, the upper trendline continues to hold the index down.

Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) -- The Intraday Chart has a clear Broad Pattern, which typically indicates the market lacks intelligent sponsorship and is out of control. The Daily Chart continues to push up, and I'm yet to spot a crack in the action. On the Weekly Chart, the upper trendline was touched Friday and failed, which is normal action on the first test.

Russell 2000 Index ($RUT) -- On the Weekly Chart, the next significant area of resistance is in the 620 area.

Bank Index ($BKX) -- On the Weekly Chart, the index will find resistance in the 50 area with support at 43.75 and 40.

Dow Transports Index ($TRAN) -- The H&S is still in play on the Monthly Chart and has significant resistance in the 4300 area. The Weekly Chart has strong support at 3400.

Gold Index ($GOLD) -- The Daily Chart has a clear triangle building near the Neckline in the inverted H&S pattern, which is normally bullish. Key areas of resistance to focus on are 975 and 990 with support at 940 and the 200 MA. A breakout from the triangle measures to 1125.

Crude Oil Index ($WTIC) -- I have two charts of the Weekly (Chart 1 - Chart 2).

Natural Gas Index ($NATGAS) -- On the Monthly Chart, we are nearing key trendline support. Although I've been a miserable failure trading UNG in the past, I'll try it again should we test it. I'll take the loss on a failure. If anyone has another idea, I'd love to hear it.


Sentiment & Ratio Charts

Volatilty Index ($VIX) -- The Weekly Chart is still in the confines of a bullish wedge. Many are watching this tick by tick waiting for it to break up. When compared to the action in 2002 - 2007, it's clear that we could grind lower for years.

Equity Put/Call Ratio ($CPCE) -- Every sentiment indicator I follow is significantly disconnected from the market. The Daily Chart is currently at a level not seen since July 2007.

Bull Market vs. Bear Market -- The Weekly Chart suggests we are in a Bull Market.

NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) -- The Bullish Percent Index is an illustration of the number of stocks on Point and Figure buy signals. It's best used as a contrarian indicator and only suggests we should be LESS Bullish when it has readings over 70 and LESS Bearish when it has readings under 30.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Thoughts....

The Weekend Update and the Index Watch is complete and posted.

I didn't have time to do a full update this weekend because my wife has been in the hospital all week. I don't see much of a point posting the short setups anyway. The majority are failing and the one's that work have worked have been good for nothing more than short term scalps. I think it's a losing proposition to think it's possible to always trade the same setups. It's a concept that can be difficult to embrace, but it's imperative we focus our trade's around what's working. Going short at resistance isn't working. Buying pullbacks to objective support or the breakouts on increased volume is the way to go. Remember, skilled traders realize that certain setups are profitable in some environments. In others he avoids those same setups at all costs.

Index Watch for August 24, 2009:







Saturday, August 22, 2009

Review for Week of August 24, 2009:

Breakout Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

ANR Alpha Natural Resources
ARP American Reprographics
BXG Bluegreen
C Citigroup
PCX Patriot Coal
ICO International Coal Group
AIB Allied Irish Banks
IRE Ireland Bank
LYG Lloyds TSB Group
GRB Gerber Scientific
XTEX Crosstex Energy
SD Sandridge Energy
SGI Silicon Graphics
FCE/A Forest City Enterprises
CCO Clear Channel
ALTH Allos Therapeutics
ENZ Enzo BioChem
TWI Titan Intl
SRI Stoneridge
AHII American Health Intl
LYV Live Nation
IDTI Integrated Device Tech
TRMA Trico Marine Services
NLST Netlist
NPO EnPro Industries
DMAN DemandTec
MBI MBIA Inc
MF MF Global
MGI MoneyGram Intl
MIC Macquire Infrastructure
MITI Micromet
MMR McMoran Exploration
TEX Terex
MPEL Melco Entertainment
ULTR Ultrapetrol
VMW VMware
MTL Mechel Steel
MTW Manitowoc
DRYS Dry Ships
FMCN Focus Media
EVII EV Innovations
SPR Spirit AeroSystems
LQDT Liquidity Services
FCSX FCStone Group
AI Arlington Asset Investment
KND Kindred Healthcare
AMB AMB Property
CBI Chicago Bridge & Iron
HERO Hercules Offshore
HLCS Helicos BioSciences
ERES eResearch Technology
PNX Phoenix Co
PTSC Patriot Scientific
CPX Complete Production Services
TONE TierOne
TRID Trident Microsystems
ATRO Astronics
DAKT Daktronics
SRZ Sunrise Senior Living
SWKS Skyworks Solutions
SWTX Southwall Tech
TA TravelCenters of America
TASR TASER Intl
DIVX DivX
GNA Gerdau AmeriSteel
NGS Natural Gas Services
NKTR Nektar Therapeutics
LF LeapFrog Enterprises
JMBA Jamba
BBEP Breit Burn Energy
AMLN Amylin Pharma
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
COGT Cogent
BARE Bare Escentuals
PDS Precision Drilling
PEI Pennsylvania REIT
WRES Warren Resources
WTI W&T Offshore
PFAP Pacific Asia Petroleum
PLLL Parallel Petroleum
HSTX Harris Stratex Networks
LXRX Lexicon Pharma
PSTI Plurisystem Life Systems
HSWI HSW Intl
VTRO Vertro
WEBM WebMediaBrands
AMCN AirMedia Group
BONT Bon-Ton Stores
KOOL Thermogenesis
NBR Nabors Industries
NFP National Financial Partners
CGX Consolidated Graphics
CHP C&D Technologies
CTFO China TransInfo Technology
CTIC Cell Therapeutics
GUID Guidance Software
DLIA Delia's
FMD First Marblehead
CLF Cliffs Natural Resources
ZOLL Zoll Medical
AB AllianceBernstein
ACI Arch Coal
DYN Dynergy
NTII Neurobiological Tech
RAIL FreightCar America
TTEG Turbine Truck Engines
IKAN Ikanos Tech
EMAN eMagin
CCTR China Crescent
ACLI American Commercial Lines

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

CAEI China Architectural Engineering
PAR 3Par
CCOI Cogent Communications
CDII China Direct Industries
CEP Constellation Energy
SGMS Scientific Games
SIMO Silicon Motion Technology
SOLF Solarfun Power Holdings
SPWRA SunPower
TESO Tesco
VISN VisionChina Media
WFR MEMC Electronics
XING Qiao Xing Universal Telephone
CML Compellant Technologies
DDR Developers Diversified RE
GA Giant Interactive
CMZ Compton Petroleum
APL Atlas Pipeline Holdings
AHD Atlas Pipeline Partners
OMNI OMNI Energy
ELN Elan
GLS Genesis Lease
LAVA Magma Design
EPEX Edge Petroleum
ERTS Electronic Arts
EXM Excel Maritime Carriers
GU Gushan Environmental
IO ION Geophysical
LCAV LCA-Vision
LTXC LTX-Credence
FTK Flotek Industries
AIMC Altra Holdings
ALJ Alon USA Energy
BIDZ Bidz.com

ETF Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

DIG ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas
OIL iPath Crude Oil
UYG ProShares Ultra Financials
DXO PowerShares Crude Oil
DYY DB Commodity Double Long

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Thoughts....

The Weekend Review, Index Watch and the Trading Spreadsheet are complete and posted. I added a few aggressive long setups I didn't post yesterday. As far as the market is concerned, the bulls are still in control meaning the easier trades will continue to be on the long side. Until it prints an identifiable lower high and low, being on the short side of the market will be difficult. It's important to remember the importance of being flexible and keeping things simple.

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Index Watch for August 17, 2009:








Review for Week of August 17, 2009:

Breakout Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

DMAN DemandTec
HSTX Harris Stratex Networks
CDII China Direct Industries
CPX Complete Production Services
ALXA Alexza Pharma
ATPG ATP Oil & Gas
MPEL Melco PBL Entertainment
LQDT Liquidity Services
AXL American Axle
XTEX Crosstex Energy
CAEI China Architectural Engineering
CTFO China Transinfo Technology
CGX Consolidated Graphics
CCTR China Crescent Enterprises
PCX Patriot Coal
ACI Arch Coal
AI Arlington Asset Investment
TTES T-3 Energy Services
VMW VMware
WRES Warren Resources
XJT ExpressJet Holdings
LYV Live Nation
MMR McMoran Exploration
IPGP IPG Photonics
LF LeapFrog Enterprises
EVII EV Innovations
TTEG Turbine Truck Engines
ERTS Electronic Arts
AHII Animal Health Intl
OPXT OpNext
PDS Precision Drilling Trust
PFAP Pacific Asia Petroleum
PLLL Parallel Petroleum
RAIL FreightCar America
SGI Silicon Graphics
FMCN Focus Media
GNA Gerdau AmeriSteel
CHP C&D Technologies
HSWI HSW Intl
AB AllianceBernstein
ABD Acco Brands
ABTL Autobytel
AIMC Altra Holdings
AMCN AirMedia
APL Atlas Pipeline
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
BARE Bare Escentuals
BBEP BreitBurn Energy
BONT Bon-Ton Stores
CCO Clear Channel
CLF Cliffs Natural Resources
CNUV China Nuvo Solar
CSII Cardiovascular Systems
CTIC Cell Therapeutics
DLIA Delia's
DYN Dynergy
ELN Elan
EMAN eMagin
FCSX FCStone Group
FMD First Marblehead
GUID Guidance Software
GVCM Geovic Mining
HERO Hercules Offshore
HL Hecla Mining
IDTI Integrated Device Technology
IKAN Ikanos Communication
INTT inTest
KOOL Thermogenesis
MITI Micromet
MTW Manitowoc
NFP National Finance Partners
NHWK NightHawk Radiology
PTSC Patriot Scientific
SRI Stoneridge
SWKS Skyworks Solutions
TRID Trident Microsystems
TRMA Trico Marine
ULTR Ultrapetrol
VTRO Vertro
WEBM WebMediaBrands
ZOLL Zoll Medical

Long Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

COGT Cogent
PAR 3Par
RVBD Riverbed Technology
SNDA Shanda Interactive
GOLD Randgold Resources
ALJ Alon USA Energy
CML Compellent Technology
CRTX Critical Therapeutics
JRCC James River Coal
LTXC LTX-Credence
SOLF Solarfun Power
VISN VisionChina Media
FTK Flotek Industries
AMLN Amylin Pharma
AXTI American Xtal Technology
CCOI Cogent Communications
CEP Constellation Energy
ESEA Euroseas
GU Gushan Environmental
IO ION Geophysical

Short Setups
(Click on Symbol for Annotated Chart)

Technology:
ADSK Autodesk
CNQR Concur Technologies
CPHD Cepheid
ARST ArcSight
EXPE Expedia
IDCC InterDigital
VPRT VistaPrint
FFIV F5 Networks
PAYX Paychex
RSTI Rofin-Sinar Technologies
TKC Turkcell lletisim
ADBE Adobe Systems
AMX America Movil
BMC BMC Software
CTSH Cognizant Technology
DIOD Diodes
FISV Fiserv
GOOG Google
HPQ Hewlett-Packard
MCHP Microchip Technology
MCRS MICROS Systems
MICC Millicom Intl Cellular
MIL Millipore
NATI National Instruments

Biotech & Health:
HRC Hill-Rom Holdings
HLF Herbalife
MCK McKesson
MDVN Medivation
MHS Medco Health Solutions
ALXN Alexion
HSIC Henry Schein
CERN Cerner
AZN Astrazeneca
BIO Bio-Rad Labs
HSP Hospira
IDXX IDEXX Labs
ILMN Illumina
IMA Inverness Medical Technology
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
LH Laboratory Amer
LIFE Life Technologies
NUVA NuVasive
PMC PharMerica
PSYS Psychiatric Solutions
RDY Dr. Reddys Labs
TECH Techne

Finance:
AXP American Express
BAC Bank of America
BAP Credicorp
BEN Franklin Resources
MTB M&T Bank
STD Banco Santander
AMG Affiliated Managers
EV Eaton Vance
JEF Jefferies Group
JLL Jones Lang Lasalle

Oil & Gas:
RRC Range Resources
SM St. Mary Land & Exploration
TLM Talisman Energy
APC Anadarko Petroleum
EOG EOG Resources
ASH Ashland
BP BP Amoco
CIG Companhia de Energetica
CLB Core Labs
CXG CNX Gas
DVN Devon Energy
EAC Encore Acquisition
EPD Enterprise Products
KMP Kinder Morgan Energy
NE Noble Drilling
OII Oceaneering
OKS ONEOK Partners

Materials:
ALB Albermale
CBT Cabot
LZ Lubrizol
IFF Intl Flavors & Fragrances
CCJ Cameco
APD Air Products & Chemicals
ARLP Alliance Resource Partners
AU Anglogold Ashanti

Industrial:
CLH Clean Harbors
GR Goodrich
IR Ingersoll-Rand
PCP Precision Castparts
SNA Snap On
VAL Valspar
VMI Valmont Industries

Retail:
TGT Target
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond
BBY Best Buy
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods
GYMB Gymboree
HELE Helen of Troy
JCG J Crew Group
KMX Carmax
NFLX Netflix
SPLS Staples

Services:
AAN Aaron Rents
CNW Con-Way
R Ryder Systems
ACN Accenture
FIS Fidelity National Information
TECD Tech Data
WWE World Wrestling Entertainment
BYI Bally Technologies
CENT Central Garden & Pet
CPRT Copart
DISCA Discovery Communications
TJX TJX Cos

Consumer Goods:
ECL Ecolab
HAS Hasbro
MGA Magna Intl
NAV Navistar
RKT Rock Tenn
SJM The J.M. Smucker Co
VFC VFCorp

Other:
CLI Mack-Cali Realty
HCN Health Care REIT
LTC LTC Properties
NNN National Retail Properties
ORH Odyssey RE Holdings
SPG Simon Property Group